EURO Swiss

SNB has pulled the Goalie

The SNB has in an unprecedented manner removed its 1.20 guarantee against the EUR. SNB had spend millions in the past supporting the guarantee of 1.20 but with the majority of share held by cantonal bank and individual investors the SNB is structured different to most central banks and has a a fiscal responsibility to shareholders and must avoid showing losses.

A stronger Swiss Franc (CHF) has a negative outlook for exporters such as luxury goods manufacturer Ermenegildo Zegna for instance tearing up its budget in line with the changes in the CHF policy.

The main beneficiaries are importers in the short term as they are able to acquire more for less. Tourism is likely to suffer in Switzerland as hotels will no longer enjoy the masses in inbound travellers.

Whilst the short term effects are easy to measure the real and long term effects are not measurable just yet as the situation of a weak CHF is yet to be seen.

The CHF has gained around 18% value against the EUR already within a week from the announcement but near term Trade numbers are going to be haemorrhaging towards are deficit as imports will increase and exports will likely suffer.

We are going short on the CHF versus all majors from parity against the EUR and onwards.

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  1. Pingback: The Reserve and Central Banks that matter and the ones that don’t | Rao Companies - Investing Intelligence

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